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Paris Climate Accord vs Reality and Common Sense

Paris Climate Accord vs Reality and Common Sense

 

I have been reading many responses to President Trump taking the US out of the agreement.  I have been reading up on Man-Made Global What Ever since Former VP Al Gore made this his life’s crusade.  This is what I have learned.

When you burn a hydrocarbon (any compound that is made up of water, {H20} and carbon) like natural gas, oil, gasoline, diesel, the main to products of the combustion are water vapor and carbon dioxide.  That is simple chemistry I learned in High School.

Carbon dioxide is a weak greenhouse gas.  It is also a must for plants to breathe.  Without plants, all life on planet Earth ends.  Carbon dioxide is water soluble.  That is a must for plankton, algae, and other plants in the water to be able to breathe.  Carbon dioxide is part of the exhale of all animals on Earth. There are other producers of carbon dioxide like volcanoes.  Carbon dioxide is essential for life on Earth.

When it comes to greenhouse gases, this is the number 3.

The next and more powerful gas is methane.  It is a hydrocarbon.  We get it many ways.  It is found in natural gas and oil.  All animals produce some as waste from digestion.  One way it is passed is by farting.  Landfills also produce methane when waste rots.  Some landfills trap the methane and burn it as a fuel to make electricity.  Of course that turns the methane into water vapor and carbon dioxide.

That is number two.

So what is the most powerful greenhouse gas?  The answer may surprise you.  You have seen it in action in our daily weather.  It is water vapor!  When the air is dry at night you have noticed that the temperature after the sun sets drops rapidly.  On a night when the air is humid the temperature drops slowly.  Cloud cover at night will keep temperatures up.  Water vapor comes from many sources beyond burning hydrocarbons.  We exhale it.  The sun evaporates it from water sources and moist ground.  This is part of the natural cycle of water.

So that is the number one.

The most important factor in how warm or cool Earth is isn’t a gas.  It is the Sun.  Without the Sun, Earth would be an ice covered orb only a few degrees above absolute zero.  There would be no atmosphere as it would have frozen out and settled on the ultra-cold surface.  The only life would be near volcanic hot springs in the deep ocean.  This we have now.

The Sun isn’t constant.  Yes, there is a scientific term called a solar constant.  That is only a unit of measurement not a description of the Sun’s output of energy.  The Sun goes through periods of sunspot activity.  The more sunspots, the more output.  The fewer sunspots, the output decreases.  Of course the temperature of the Earth responds to the output.

Sunspots are an interesting factor.  During the Little Ice Age from the 14th century to the early 19th century (https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age) scientists during this period noticed that there were very, very few sunspots or even no sunspots for many years.  This climate change was not caused by man.  Nor was it cured by man.  It was the Earth’s response to a decrease in solar energy.  Right now we are experiencing a sharp decrease in sunspot activity.  It is well below the “normal”.   

So logic says we should be cooling.  Some NASA data backs this up.  The data shows no increase in the average global temperature for up to two decades.  Both contradict the panic stricken left.

Another factor in how warm or cool is atmospheric pollution.  In many industrial cities before anti-pollution measures some of the sun light was reflected into space before it could hit the earth due to the smog and industrial haze.  This slightly cooled these areas.  Once the pollution was gone, the area warmed up.  A great example of this is the Ruhr Valley in Germany.  This has happened on a global scale when there has been a massive volcano eruption.  Some of the very fine particles stay suspended for months or even years.  This blocks sunlight from reaching the earth.  This causes cooling around the world not just locally.  This is well documented.  When the super volcano that is the Yellowstone caldera erupts, it is estimated that the effects will be significant and temperatures around the world will cool. 

I live in Michigan.  From my reading on climate change, the northern part of North America and Europe has had multiple Ice Ages.  Here they say up to seven such coverings by ice sheets more than a mile thick.  None of these were man caused or man cured.  The last ice age ended around 10,000 years ago.  Some say we are due for another.  If true, that is a major ecological disaster.  We are powerless to stop it. 

Scientists have no answer why these Ice Ages occurred.  If the Little Ice Age is a clue, then a decrease in the Sun’s output is a likely answer.

Another scream of the ultra-left is that with warming, the oceans will rise as the polar caps will melt.  During the last Ice Age, the ocean level dropped hundreds of feet as so much water was locked up in ice.  This is how man got to North America.  They crossed a land bridge of sea bottom that was exposed by the low sea level in what we now call the Bearing Straight.

Melting ice caps isn’t the only reason water levels can rise.  The land can rise and sink.  A good example of sinking is Venice in Italy.  It is slowly sinking into the Mediterranean Sea.  Here the city of New Orleans is sinking.  Much of the city is below not only the level of the Mississippi River, but the Gulf of Mexico as well.  These are due to the compaction of the soil.

The Earth is a dynamic planet.  The surface itself is constantly ultra-slowly moving.  The Pacific Ocean is shrinking.  The Atlantic Ocean is growing.  All along the Pacific Ocean is a chain of volcanoes referred to as Ring of Fire.  Under the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is the Mid Oceanic Ridge.  This is a undersea mountain range of slow volcanic activity.  As the Atlantic expands, magma comes up and fills in the gap.  One place on land you can see this if the ever growing island of Iceland.

Now you ask, what does this have to do with rising sea levels?  Remember the tsunami on Christmas in 2004?  This was caused by an earthquake that caused the sea bottom to rise up to 40 feet. (http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/tsunami-devastates-indian-ocean-coast)  All this displaced water has to go someplace.  The logical answer is a very slight rise in worldwide sea level.

Another consideration is the crust floats on the mantel of the Earth.  I think it is folly to assume that this is exactly constant.  The crust must bob up and down slightly on the mantel.  If this happens at a coast line, the ocean level will appear to change.  Any rise of the ocean floor anywhere on Earth has to change the ocean level.  Are we even looking at this?  I sure wonder.

Burning hydrocarbons creates water as well as carbon dioxide.  One question I have yet to hear an answer to is where does all this water go?  This has to end up in the oceans.  While it will not raise ocean levels greatly, this still has to have an effect.  I mean when you burn a great many million barrels of oil alone each year for decades, this water has to go someplace.

We have been pumping an enormous amount of water from underground aquifers.  In many place this is in excess of what the rain in the area can replace.  This water is someplace.  Where is it?  I think a safe bet is some of it has to end up in the oceans.  This too has to have an effect on the ocean level.

Both of these does not account for the entire rise.  Neither can it be ignored. 

For sea level to remain constant, two things must stay the same.  The amount of water in the world’s oceans and the volume of water they can hold.  If either changes, the level must change.

In the last ice age, the level dropped several hundred feet.  This would cause all the world’s ocean ports to be high and dry.  If the volume of the world’s oceans was to decrease, ocean levels would rise.  This could be what is happening between the Pacific shrinking and even with the expansion of the Atlantic; the growth of the Mid Oceanic Mountain Range could be cancelling out the expected volume increase of the Atlantic Ocean.  This would cause a slow rise in sea level around the world.

Another question is the accuracy of the computer models.  So far the models have overstated the rise in temperature.  Now I know a thing or two about computers.  I repaired them when I served in the Air Force.  I have a degree in computer programming.   

 Any computer simulation is only as good as the computer program and the data inputted into the program.  If there are errors in either, each run going forward based on the changed data from the prior run will magnify the errors.  We have seen hurricane prediction models.  While they all start will where the storm is, they vary greatly in the predicted path of the storm.  In the end, none of the paths will be the exact course of the storm.  We can look at the 7 to 10 day forecasts put out by NOAA and other groups.  The weather at the end of the forecast is rarely correct.  These are just short term forecasts and not long range forecast like we see with carbon dioxide/temperature forecasts.  So why is the long range forecast better that either I cite above?  This does give one good reason to question.

A program to accurately predict the carbon dioxide temperature for the future would have to be so extremely complicated with so much data to be computed that it would take both a very, very long time to code and debug.  Any program this extremely complicated would at the start be quite buggy.  Finding bugs can be a very time consuming process.  Until all the bugs are found and corrected, the results would be off to some degree.  I wonder if all the bugs have been found.  Or did they quit when they were getting the “results” they wanted to see?  Did they just assume it was correct then?  This program would have to be so complicated that it would take a long time for even the best super computer to run it to get a forecast for decades out.

So Earth’s temperature and the ocean level are very complicated things.  Most of these factors are beyond our control.  Computer simulations give us reason to question the results.  There are many more factors I have not mentioned.

With all of the very real possibilities, I have to question why so many tell us the carbon dioxide is the only possible cause and answer.  With all the possibilities is carbon dioxide even a factor?  It is a great question.  It is far from settled science in my mind.  There are way too many unanswered questions. 

Even if fully implemented, the Paris Climate Accord would have no effect on so many of the possible answers.  So it is a very good thing that President Trump got America out of it.

Ending our participation in the Accord will not end America further minimizing pollution of all types.  It just means we will not be destroying our industry or further taxing our people to be in an agreement that will do so extremely little with so much of our money.  That has to be a good thing for America.

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Comment by SGT William A. Geresy (ret) on June 4, 2017 at 10:56pm

I have added even more to the original post.

Comment by Karen Damvelt on June 2, 2017 at 4:00pm

Very True in some Respects--Watch the Movie--The Day After Tomorrow to get a Better Idea of What Could Happen.

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